Argus, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

279
FXUS65 KVEF 161700
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1000 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A large low pressure system will slowly move across
California and Nevada bringing widespread gusty south to southwest
winds to the region today along with a significant cooling trend. A
second trough of low pressure will move across the area midweek
bringing a reinforcing shot of cool air along with scattered showers.
&&
.UPDATE...Satellite imagery showed a a deep trough spinning in
northern California this morning. Ahead of the trough, strong
forcing allowed for precipitation to blossom in western Nevada, with
rain and isolated thunderstorms noted on radar in Esmeralda County
and isolated showers in the northern White Mountains of Inyo County.
Area webcams showed rain shafts that became more impressive through
the morning in Emeralda County as the low levels saturated and rain
became more efficient.

Through rest of the day, will need to watch for rainfall impact in
Esmeralda County as bands of rain continue to stream through the
county. HREF 3hr PMMs for greater than 1.00 inch of rain in northern
portions of Esmeralda County shows 10%-30% probabilities, mainly
through the morning. WPC continues to highlight the region with a
slight risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding, which given
the dynamics but short duration of precipitation potential and drier
low levels makes sense. As the low shifts east, precipitation will
be possible in parts of the Southern Great Basin. However, each
model run backs of how much is able to develop, mainly focusing on
the terrain in northern Lincoln County later today. With dry low
levels and the rapid transition eastward of the system, it will be
hard to get much precipitation to develop and then reach the
surface. Probabilities for impactful precipitation outside of
Esmeralda County are low to none, so no concerned with afternoon
precipitation causing any flash flooding or other impacts.

Wind advisories continue for much of the region today. So far
through the morning, the strongest winds were reported in Nye County
where south winds were gusting 35-45 MPH. Gusts over 60 MPH were
also reported in the terrain of the Southern Great Basin, including
Angel Peak. Widespread gusts of 35-45 MPH are likely this afternoon
with the strongest winds expected in Lincoln and Mohave counties
where the strongest pressure gradient will set up and probability
for wind gusts over 40 MPH is 80% or higher. NO changes were made to
the wind headlines, will need to consider if the wind advisory in
the western Mojave Desert will need to be extended as HREF
probabilities for over 40 MPH gusts remains over 70% overnight.

High temperatures today will be noticeably cooler than yesterday.
With cooler air pushing into the region with the upper level system,
high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday.

-Nickerson-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...157 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night.

Gusty winds and cooler temperatures will be the most notable weather
for most of the area today associated with the closed low currently
centered over central California. No changes needed to the going
wind advisory headlines. Widespread gusts of 35 to 45 mph are likely
across much of the region today. The slow movement of the upper low
will keep this a low-end wind event with occasional gusts over 40
mph at the more wind-prone sites, but impacts will be minor. Wind
speeds will ramp up late morning through the afternoon then decrease
this evening. Gusts around 40 mph may persist over parts of northern
Bernardino County late this evening and overnight and we may have to
evaluate the need to extend the advisory for those zones once we see
how winds materialize through the day.

A localized concern primarily for Esmeralda County is the potential
for bands of training showers and thunderstorms driven by favorable
dynamic forcing near the northeast quadrant of the upper low. The
latest HREF and other high res models indicate the potential for 6
hour localized rainfall amounts of 0.50-0.75 inches over northern
Esmeralda County between 12Z and 18Z this morning. It will be
something to monitor, but the threat is not widespread enough to
warrant a Flash Flood Watch. Upward forcing fades for training
storms this afternoon and scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms will develop over northern Inyo County into this
evening under the low center`s cold pool. This will lead to light
snowfall above 9000 feet in the Sierra and White Mountains, but
accumulations are not expected to cause any travel impacts in our
zones.

The center of the closed low is forecast to be over northeast Nevada
at 12Z Tuesday and will lift over the Northern Intermountain Region
which will result in fairly light winds with temperatures in the 50s
and lower 60s to start the day then topping out in the 80s across
the Mojave Desert zones...which is about 10-15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

The next low pressure system drops south from the Pacific Northwest
into California/Nevada on Wednesday, pushing east on Thursday. One
impact from this system will be elevated southerly to southwesterly
winds as a tight pressure gradient passes overhead. There is not a
strong signal for widespread gusts over 40 mph at this time, but
will continue to monitor trends. A modest increase in moisture
associated with the low may bring another opportunity for
precipitation, particularly over the southern Great Basin where
forcing under the center of the low should be strongest. Lastly, it
should help maintain temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average
through the rest of the workweek. One the trough exits to the east,
a ridge over the Pacific Ocean will expand into the western United
States, bringing rising heights and closer to average temperatures
over the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Occasional southwesterly gusts between
15 and 20 kts continue through the overnight and early morning
period before speeds increase to 25 to 35 kts around sunrise and
continue through sunset. Isolated gusts to 40 kts cannot be ruled
out in the late-afternoon with a 10 percent chance of occurrence.
Gust speed and frequency will gradually decrease overnight into
Tuesday with winds returning to typical diurnal trends early Tuesday
morning. FEW-SCT aoa 20 kft will increase through the latter part of
the overnight period and will clear out before sunrise this morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, southeastern California, and
northwestern Arizona...Occasional gusty south-southwest winds will
continue overnight into the early-morning across the forecast area
with speed and frequency increasing with sunrise. Gust speeds this
afternoon will range from 25 to 35 kts with up to 40 kts possible
(30 percent chance) at KDAG this afternoon. BKN-OVC aoa 10 kft and
light rain possible at KBIH this morning and afternoon before
clearing out through the day. Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will
experience increasing cloud cover (FEW-SCT aoa 20 kft) this morning
that is expected to clear out before sunrise. No operationally
significant cloud cover elsewhere through the TAF period. The risk
of reduced slantwise visibility continues due to hazy skies from the
southern California wildfires. Visibility is expected to remain
above 6 SM.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adair
LONG TERM...Meltzer
AVIATION...Soulat

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